N.Y.'s power grid faces challenges as renewables replace fossil fuels

NYISO keeps an eye on the production and transmission of electricity across the state on a real-time basis.

NORTH GREENBUSH — The rate at which old fossil fuel plants are being replaced by green energy such as wind and solar is leading to "declining reliability’’ of the power grid, according to the agency that operates the 24/7 sale of electricity from power plants to the grid.

"Pursuant to public policies, fossil fuel generation is retiring faster than renewable resources are entering service, leading to declining reliability margins across the state," according to the most recent update on long term trends from the New York Independent System Operator, which coordinates the sale and distribution of electricity.

Most of the reliability worries are in the New York City area, since that is the largest market for electricity, even though a good deal of the power is generated upstate.

Essentially, NYISO officials say planned shutdowns of dirty gas and oil power plants will be outpacing the rate at which new clean solar and wind operations come on line.

"As that supply margin shrinks it makes it more complicated," NYISO President and CEO Rich Dewey said Wednesday in rolling out the report on a web-based news conference.

NYISO 2023 Power Trends by rkarlin on Scribd

A good deal of this stems from state policymakers' goals to decarbonize the economy by shifting from fossil fuels to alternative fuels.

According to the 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, the state is supposed to get 100 percent of its electricity from renewables by 2040. By 2030, that's supposed to be 70 percent from renewables. To make those goals, though, the speed with which renewables come on line may have to increase, and power generators may also have to look at nuclear power as an option.

Since Indian Point closed in 2021, the use of fossil fuel plants — burning gas and "dual fuels, or gas and oil" has risen to fill the gap, noted NYISO planners.

When asked if the state should look toward nuclear power, NYISO's Executive Vice President Emilie Nelson said, "We need a combination of technologies."

Others have also said that next generation nuclear plants, which could be smaller and build on standardized modular design, may be an option for emissions-free power in the future.

The need for electric power also will grow in coming years because of economic development, as well as the electrification of buildings and cars, noted Dewey. Because of that, electric demand by 2035 will be expected to peak in the winter, when it will be a primary source of heating. Currently, electric demand peaks during summer heat waves.

Currently, about 20 percent of the state's power comes from hydropower, 22 percent from nuclear, 22 percent from natural gas, and 28 percent from dual fuel. Wind generates 4 percent and other renewables such as solar add 2 percent. The renewables, though, are growing over time.

[email protected] 518 454 5758 @RickKarlinTU